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AGNC's Q2 book value per share slid 7% as widening mortgage spreads and MBS losses pressured portfolio valuations.
We take a look at the action in preferreds and baby bonds through the fourth week of July and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. Preferreds market remained stable with credit spreads at relatively tight levels. Agency mortgage REITs like DX, AGNC, and NLY increased common equity, significantly boosting equity/preferred coverage and making their preferreds especially appealing at ~9.5% yields.
AGNC preferreds remain attractive for income investors, offering high yields and improved equity coverage despite recent book value declines. Floating-rate AGNC preferreds are unlikely to see significant price drops if the Fed cuts rates, as credit spreads matter more than short-term rates. Redemption risk for floating-rate preferreds is low and price impact minimal, making AGNCN, AGNCO and others compelling high-quality income holdings.
The Dividend Harvesting Portfolio hit new milestones: $30,000 balance, 30%+ ROI, and $2,428 in forward annualized dividend income. Strong earnings season and potential Fed pivot in September could further boost technology, REIT, and financial holdings in the portfolio. Strategic diversification across 103 positions with sector and position caps has mitigated risk while compounding dividend income accelerates.
AGNC offers a leveraged play on agency MBS, thriving best in stable, wide-spread interest rate environments, with recent volatility impacting performance. Current management strategy is conservative: high liquidity, lower leverage, and strong hedging to navigate ongoing market uncertainty and preserve dividends. Upcoming lower interest rates and a steeper yield curve, driven by political and economic pressures, are expected to benefit AGNC's returns and valuation.
Do AGNC's Q2 miss, shrinking book value and pressured spreads raise flags, even as dividends stay strong? Let us find out.
AGNC Investment (AGNC 0.94%) is an interesting stock because of the complexity of what it does. And that complexity bleeds into the way investors need to think about this ultra-high-yield mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT).
AGNC Investment posted three consecutive quarters of rising net interest income, despite missing Q2 profit and sales expectations. The trust's portfolio is heavily invested in agency mortgage-backed securities, offering strong income and minimal credit risk. Higher inflation delays expected rate cuts, but I anticipate lower rates within a year, which should benefit AGNC's portfolio and valuation.
The ongoing tariff situation, along with tensions between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, continued to make for a difficult mortgage-backed security (MBS) market in the second quarter. While mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) AGNC Investment (AGNC 0.88%) was able to navigate the market, the environment weighed on its results.
The second quarter got off to a rocky start following the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in early April. Stocks and other financial assets initially tumbled due to increased uncertainty about how tariffs might impact the economy.