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Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.
While the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks entered "correction territory" this month for the first time since 2023, U.S. REITs have meaningfully outperformed the broader equity market since mid-January. The rebound follows a truly forgettable three-year period for REITs dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in which REITs have accumulated 40 percentage-points of underperformance. REITs remain as unloved as ever: The number of publicly listed REITs declined for a fourth-straight year in 2024. As an asset class, REITs are the single-largest "underweight" among institutional investors.
US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory."
In Part 3 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Losers of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Commercial Mortgage REITs were the "biggest loser" of REIT earnings season after results showed ongoing problems in the office space and a significant deterioration in multifamily bridge loan performance. Results from Hotel REITs were also disappointing given the record-levels of travel demand, as margin pressures from higher labor costs have taken a sizable bite out of bottom-line profitability.
US equity markets tumbled this week - suffering its worst week in six months - as disappointing employment reports and fast-shifting tariff policy failed to improve skittish investor sentiment. Reminiscent of Fed Chair Powell's infamous August 2022 "some pain ahead" speech, the Trump Administration warned of a "little disturbance" and a necessary "detox period" for the U.S. economy. Softer-than-expected employment data this week fueled doubts that sweeping overhauls to trade policy and fiscal spending can be accomplished without risking a recession.
This week features the largest list of dividend increases ever, with 50 companies, including Coca-Cola extending its 63-year streak with a 5.2% increase. My strategy focuses on companies with consistent dividend growth and outperforming benchmarks, using data from the "U.S. Dividend Champions" spreadsheet and NASDAQ. I recommend the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF for broad U.S. equity exposure and the Cohen & Steers REIT & Preferred Income Fund for REITs.
I emphasize the importance of nonpartisan economic and investment analysis, highlighting how political biases can distort market expectations and investment decisions. Medicaid cuts would likely have little impact on skilled nursing facility REITs, and the current selloff presents a buying opportunity for CareTrust REIT. Single-family rental REITs face challenges from high home prices and mortgage rates, but offer quality rental homes and professional management.
LAS VEGAS , Feb. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- AMH (NYSE: AMH) (the "Company"), a leading large-scale integrated owner, operator and developer of single-family rental homes, today announced that members of the Company's management team will participate in a roundtable discussion at the 2025 Citi Global Property CEO Conference on Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
US equity markets slumped this week - while benchmark interest rates tumbled to two-month lows - after downbeat economic data and cautious corporate commentary sparked concern over slowing economic growth. Compounded by some unsettling COVID-related headlines late in the week, investors adopted a more "risk off" position after consumer and business survey data picked up a sudden negative sentiment shift. After notching a pair of record-highs early in the week, a two-day tumble sent the S&P 500 lower by 1.6% on the week. Small-Caps and Mid-Caps both dipped over 3%.
The market is rotating towards non-tech dividend stocks, with dividend ETFs outperforming the Magnificent 7 so far this year. Elon Musk's DOGE initiative is more political theater than a serious effort, in my opinion, to reduce government waste, with exaggerated savings claims. Key economic metrics to monitor include housing starts, the Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index, the Conference Board Coincident Index, total employment, and industrial production.