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March winds bring April showers.
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When a commercial aircraft encounters turbulence, a flight attendant will tell all passengers to return to their seats and buckle their seat belts. Some investors think a similar approach is appropriate when the stock market hits a rough patch.
Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Ares Capital (ARCC). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
This is my first BDC portfolio monthly performance review article. The good news is that the portfolio has done its job, outperforming the two BDC benchmarks - PBDC and BIZD. Yet, on an absolute basis, the portfolio is slightly down.
Ares Capital offers a generous 9% dividend yield and has become more attractive after a recent sell-off, presenting a solid total return outlook. As a leading BDC with a market cap of $15 billion, ARCC employs a mixed strategy, balancing low-risk senior secured debt with higher-risk investments. ARCC's portfolio includes 57% first lien senior secured debt, 11% second lien debt, and 10% preferred equity.
Ares Capital's diverse portfolio and strong dividend yield of 8.7% make it a stable and attractive investment for reliable supplemental income. Despite trading at a premium to NAV, ARCC's valuation is reasonable compared to peers, with low non-accrual rates and consistent capital allocation to new investment activity. ARCC's portfolio growth and strategic investments in senior secured debt provide downside protection and potential for capital appreciation.
The technicals are overall net bullish, especially for the near term as Ares Capital's stock has rebounded and the EMAs and indicators look promising. Most recent earnings are unconvincing, as EPS declines and weakening investment performance per share show a shaky business. Meanwhile, the P/B ratio has shown multiyear expansion and is at above average levels, signalling overvaluation relative to the fundamentals.