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China and Hong Kong markets had a humbling 2023 with equities down more than 10%. Beijing has also begun stepping up tourism and travel promotions, granting visa-free entry to 11 countries, with Singapore and Thailand the latest to be included.
The Chinese economy is stabilising, but the only fireworks will come from the new year celebrations, which begin on February 11, as momentum remains weak. China's GDP growth for the fourth quarter rose from 4.9% year-on-year to 5.2%, bringing 2023 full-year growth to 5.2% YoY, exceeding the 5% growth target set at last year's Two Sessions.
While recent policy announcements and data surprises have generated some optimism, we maintain a cautious stance on China's economic prospects. We believe weak consumption trends, a downbeat labor market and continuing property sector headwinds should all weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.
China's government is finally moving to stimulate the economy after its sluggish post-COVID reopening.
Chinese stock prices have lost money in the 16 years since 2007 and are now back near 2005 levels. Chinese treasury bonds have rallied sharply as beaten-up capital capitulates out of riskier markets and back to the relative safety of government bonds.
Exchange-traded funds that target Chinese equites were surging on Tuesday as Beijing reportedly weighs a support package for its struggling stock market.
Chinese mainland blue chips had another torrid year in 2023. Yields are up, but valuations are not that cheap; nor has the macro backdrop improved. A-share vehicles like ASHR might still have more room to correct before we hit bottom.
PMI data for October showed momentum in China's economy waned following recent improvements in hard activity data. By industry type, most manufacturing sectors experienced a slowdown in growth in October, though for companies that are heavy consumers of energy, activity actually declined slightly, perhaps affected by recent increases in the prices of crude energy.
The IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations all rank China and Japan as the second and third largest economies on the planet. More of what is occurring in the markets should reflect what is happening in China and Japan which are strongly linked economically.
Chinese equities are slumping Thursday, with exchange-traded funds that target stocks in the country seeing sharp drops amid concerns over the world's second largest economy.