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Interest rate cuts are back on the table. The next one will likely be on June 18th. This is a strong catalyst for beaten-down small-cap REITs.

US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory."

In Part 3 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Losers of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Commercial Mortgage REITs were the "biggest loser" of REIT earnings season after results showed ongoing problems in the office space and a significant deterioration in multifamily bridge loan performance. Results from Hotel REITs were also disappointing given the record-levels of travel demand, as margin pressures from higher labor costs have taken a sizable bite out of bottom-line profitability.

US equity markets tumbled this week - suffering its worst week in six months - as disappointing employment reports and fast-shifting tariff policy failed to improve skittish investor sentiment. Reminiscent of Fed Chair Powell's infamous August 2022 "some pain ahead" speech, the Trump Administration warned of a "little disturbance" and a necessary "detox period" for the U.S. economy. Softer-than-expected employment data this week fueled doubts that sweeping overhauls to trade policy and fiscal spending can be accomplished without risking a recession.

AvalonBay (AVB) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?

AVB is set to gain from high-quality assets in premium markets, technological enhancements and a healthy balance sheet. High unit supply raises concerns.

In Part 2 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Winners of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Healthcare REITs were the leaders this earnings season, with results showing robust momentum in senior housing fundamentals, while tenant operator issues improved across other healthcare sub-sectors. Results from Net Lease, Casino, and Residential Mortgage REITs - several of the most rate-sensitive sectors - were also surprisingly steady despite the interest rate turbulence in late 2024.

Demographic shifts, including an aging population and migration trends, are key drivers of REIT performance, influencing sector allocations and investment strategies. Chilton focuses on single-family rental (SFR) and healthcare REITs, with targeted exposure to multifamily REITs in coastal and Sun Belt markets. The aging population boosts demand for senior housing and medical outpatient buildings, benefiting REITs like Welltower, Ventas, and American Healthcare REIT.

AVB reports improvement in economic occupancy and like-term effective rent change for its same-store residential portfolio, doubles its portfolio size in Texas.

US equity markets declined for the fourth week in the past five after a frenetic slate of geopolitical headlines and economic data indicated a sluggish start to 2025 for global growth. The Atlanta Fed's updated growth forecast indicated a -1.5% contraction in first-quarter GDP, while PCE data showed the first monthly decline in personal spending in nearly two years. Buoyed by the interest rate retreat, real estate equities were also a notable source of strength this week as REIT earnings season wrapped up with a surprisingly solid slate of results.