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Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) has an impressive earnings surprise history and currently possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely beat in its next quarterly report.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s asset base is geographically and sector-diversified, but we believe negative duration and convexity effects could emerge later this year. Although short-term U.S. inflation remains resilient, the long-term trend suggests yields will eventually drop in late 2024. Moreover, BXMT's other operating regions face the same problems. 'Tied-up' capital could be an issue as sustained economic risk introduces excess reserve requirements and likely limits Blackstone Mortgage Trust's profit capacity.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is one of the largest mortgage REITs in the world, with a diverse portfolio of commercial loans across asset classes. BXMT is trading at a discount to book value, offering value for optimistic shareholders who believe the commercial real estate sector will improve. In 2023, BXMT's dividend coverage was 123%, providing ample protection from ongoing systemic issues including weakness in the office market.
TCPC, BXMT and CHK have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on April 10, 2023.
Muddy Waters Capital founder Carson Block says the firm is growing even more convinced about the bet against Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. "We feel really good that a dividend cut will be coming in the second half of the year," he tells Bloomberg's Sonali Basak.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust comfortably covered its dividend pay-out with distributable earnings in 4Q-23. BXMT stock is selling at a significant discount to book value, providing a high margin of dividend safety. Despite concerns over exposure to the U.S. office category, the trust's 12% yield is expected to remain safe.
BASFY, BXMT and COVTY have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on March 5, 2023.
BXMT, BMY and CWEN have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on February 26, 2023.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust beat earnings estimates for Q4, but showed weakness in its loan portfolio, with a decline in performing loans and a drop in book value. The REIT's CECL reserve increased significantly in Q4'23, indicating higher expected credit losses for its office loan portfolio. The distribution coverage ratio dropped relative to Q3'24, raising concerns for dividend investors.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.66 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.87 per share a year ago.