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The S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.79%) is down 10% so far this year. And that has a lot to do with the Trump administration's trade policy, which has proven unpredictable and extreme.
Dollar General's stock is down 62% from its peak due to poor execution, but I forecast a 32% return and 15% IRR by 2027 catalyzed by tariffs. Dollar General's model, focused on non-discretionary essentials and local sourcing, provides a strategic edge amid tariff impacts and industry margin compression. Operational improvements under new management, including inventory stabilization and store upgrades, are beginning to show positive results, enhancing Dollar General's resilience.
Dollar General (DG 2.28%) is a defensive investment because it caters to consumers who buy essential items.
With tariff policies causing extensive worry in markets, one word has started to rear its ugly head more and more: recession. Market observers worry that tariffs could cause a worldwide slowdown as prices rise significantly.
Dollar General's (DG 2.28%) focus on offering discounted essentials could make it a top defensive play for 2025, especially with the stock trading at a deep discount. Melius Research analyst Karen Short recently upgraded the stock to a "buy" rating with a $110 price target, implying upside of 27% over the current $86.85 share price.
Despite declining profitability, it is fixable, and Dollar General's initiatives will improve this metric moving forward. In its Q4 2024 earnings call, Dollar General provided financial targets, which I believe are very conservative. Dollar General's Retail Media Network is a promising growth opportunity for the company as it leverages a targeted demographic that can attract brands that cater to its specific customers.
Tom Yeung here with your Sunday Digest. Several years ago, we at InvestorPlace and our partners at TradeSmith began working on AI-powered investing systems to bring Wall Street's edge to ordinary investors.
Spring is only just starting to bloom, but 2025 is already starting to look like a lost year for investors. As of April 8, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.81%) is down 18%, the Nasdaq Composite is in a bear market, and investors are reeling over President Donald Trump's plan to impose the highest tariff rates in over a century.
Dollar General has outperformed the market, with shares up 22.5% amid economic uncertainty. Despite some signs of weakness, Dollar General's sales and store count have grown, and shares remain attractively priced. The company's profitability has been challenged by rising costs and impairment charges, but long-term growth prospects remain positive.
Dollar General's comeback is turning heads. Should you lock in gains now or wait?