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D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI shares are trading higher on Monday. They may be on the verge of a breakout, and if this happens, there is a good chance a new uptrend forms.
With Q2 earnings season now in full swing, hundreds of companies have reported financial results over the past several weeks. However, only a few big names have announced something many investors want: increasing buybacks.
D.R. Horton shares have rallied 17% post-earnings, signaling the housing cycle's trough may be behind us. Cyclical investing favors buying when sentiment is most negative, which I argued was the case for D.R. Horton a month ago. Homebuilders faced a perfect storm: tariffs, labor shortages, high inventory, and rising mortgage rates, driving a 40% drop from peak.
Shares of D.R. Horton (DHI -1.98%) were moving higher this week after the nation's largest homebuilder reported better-than-expected results in its fiscal third-quarter earnings report, despite continued pressure on the housing market, weak consumer sentiment, and elevated mortgage rates.
Many homebuilders like D.R. Horton experience the softness in the housing market, but I don't think it will lead to a crash considering their cautious construction and low inventory. DHI takes advantage of its geographical diversification and inventory management to set a strategic pricing, attract demand, and stabilize operating costs. Its robust liquidity with only a 0.90x Net Debt/EBITDA ensures its sustainability.
Downgrading DHI to sell as affordability pressures and cautious consumer sentiment are clearly hurting demand, margins, and backlog. Management's increased use of incentives and shift to lower-priced homes signal demand is being bought, not organic, pressuring long-term profitability. Stock trades at 12x forward PE, well above historical mid-cycle multiples, despite deteriorating fundamentals and weakening demand outlook.
D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI surpassed third‑quarter revenue and earnings per share expectations, refined its 2025 guidance and projected continued growth, yet saw its shares dip.
Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management CiO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss markets, his bullish case for homebuilders and why he sold some Berkshire Hathaway.
Stock price-driven narratives often overshadow company fundamentals, leading to significant mispricings, as seen with D.R. Horton and Alexandria Real Estate Equities. DHI's selloff was fueled by negative sentiment around mortgage rates and housing, ignoring its strong balance sheet, high margins, and operational flexibility. DHI's recent earnings shattered the negative narrative, proving its resilience and leaving the stock undervalued at just over 12X trough earnings.