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The debate over the future of Japan continues. Because of its small footprint, we often forget the oversized role Japan plays in the global economy.
It is disappointing that labour cash earnings were weaker than expected in Japan, but consumption held up relatively well. Meanwhile, due to the recent spike in market rates and high inflation, the Bank of Japan is expected to change its YCC policy and forward guidance at its October meeting.
There is growing sentiment that Japan may have turned a corner and could experience robust growth in a changing landscape. Japan's biggest appeal is its cheap valuation. Japan still faces many issues on demographics and monetary policy.
This year has been one of the contradictions in the U.S. stock market, but in July, Morgan Stanley highlighted several warning signs that suggest a bust may hit U.S. equities soon. Higher-than-usual bond-market volatility, resilient Treasury rates, and the strong U.S. dollar could signal trouble.
This year has been one of the contradictions in the U.S. stock market, but in July, Morgan Stanley highlighted several warning signs that suggest a bust may hit U.S. equities soon. Higher-than-usual bond-market volatility, resilient Treasury rates, and the strong U.S. dollar could signal trouble.
Japan's second-quarter GDP for 2023 has surged due to robust exports and a significant inflow of tourists, indicating that the country is emerging from its Covid slump. While these factors contribute to the impressive growth, concerns arise from declining imports and reduced private consumption, casting a pall on the optimistic figurers.
Investors are hopeful that ultra-loose monetary policy and corporate reforms will revive Japan's stagnant economy. Investors may believe that even if Japanese equities were to produce mediocre returns, the potential for substantial FX gains would justify taking the risk. However, we warn that investors ought to be more conservative with their expectations when assessing the potential impact of ambitious reforms in Japan.
The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, remained unchanged at 52.1 in July. Japan's manufacturing sector output remained in contraction according to the latest July flash PMI data.
Japan's stock market roared higher in the first half of 2023, trouncing gains scored by equities in the U.S. and other developed markets, while defying the tightening trend at other global central banks.
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