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The fourth-quarter reporting period is still in full swing for many sectors, including gold miners. While one or two have yet to report, the lion's share of the big earnings releases from the mining sector are in, revealing some critical trends for the sector as a whole.
After a decade of under performance, gold appears poised for a comeback. Several factors, including a dovish Fed and a massive technical breakout bode well for the precious metal.
The GDX has underperformed the S&P 500 in recent months, but that's likely to change.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF has declined by nearly 20% over the past two months even as the broader market has soared. However, leading billionaire investors have been pouring money into gold miners recently, while also selling some of their big tech stocks. We discuss why they are likely making this sector rotation and the implications for the GDX ETF.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF is trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, but this merely reflects the ongoing deterioration in the sector's fundamentals. Declining profits and free cash flows, along with deteriorating balance sheets, are contributing to the sector's challenges, with dividends set to be slashed. Weak fundamentals leave gold miners highly susceptible to falling gold prices, with previous cash crunches resulting in the GDX trading below book value, which is still 30% below current valuations.
Hello! This is MarketWatch reporter Isabel Wang bringing you this week's ETF Wrap. After a decade of seemingly never-ending fee-cutting wars, ETF issuers raised their fees in 2023 as the landscape evolved beyond cheap index-tracking funds.
That's because gold market timers are neither excessively optimistic (which would suggest gold would break down) nor excessively pessimistic (which would suggest gold would break out to the upside).
Gold prices are influenced by the path of real interest rates and the value of the US dollar, both of which have pressured the precious metal lately. Upcoming expected interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may benefit gold, but the path higher may be rocky. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has a fair valuation but an unimpressive technical setup, and I highlight key price levels to watch with the FOMC meeting on tap.
The past six months saw gold's price rise more than 5%, and it crossed the $2,000 threshold. Additionally, in late 2023 several firms reported that central banks' gold purchases were closing in on all-time highs.
The case for owning gold miners has strengthened considerably over the past year due to the lower downside risk from current levels. GDX does a good job at reducing certain idiosyncratic risks, but the large exposure to individual names should be taken into account. Macroeconomic factors, such as the risk of a recession and expanding U.S. deficits, could support the price of gold in 2024.