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Gold is back in the spotlight, and eyes are on the Fed. As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for what could be an aggressive rate cut, gold ETFs, especially the gold-bullion tracking ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Trust GLD and the iShares Gold Trust IAU, are riding the wave.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up 24% YTD, driven by rising gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and falling interest rates. Central banks' increased gold purchases, geopolitical instability, and potential interest rate cuts create a favorable environment for sustained gold price increases. Investing in GDX offers exposure to gold miners, which can amplify profits as gold prices rise, providing diversification and reduced risk.
We've been trying both defensive and growth areas in this market. Here's how we handled a trade in gold miners.
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Hedge funds are the most bearish on commodities prices in at least 13 years as fears of a deeper economic slowdown cast doubts on demand for everything from crude oil to metals and grains, according to a report by Bloomberg Meanwhile, WTI crude oil traded above $79 price per barrel.
GDX performance has lagged behind the price of Gold. GDX has also underperformed its top holdings. The current portfolio has a consensus upside potential of 12% and is valued at 10x PE or 0.4 PEG.
GDX has underperformed the S&P 500, but there are important caveats when judging short-term performance. Gold miners margins are now in a very good position to improve through the rest of 2024. Topline growth is also expected to remain high, while valuations do not seem to reflect that.
For much of gold's gains earlier this year, miners have lagged. But that scenario has changed in earnest.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has outperformed the S&P 500, but performance relative to the price of gold is not up to par. After years of increasing costs, it appears that in 2024 we could finally see certain cost items coming under control. Although the overall risk for equities is now quite high, the GDX ETF is in a good position to outperform both the S&P 500 and the GLD.
Central Banks have stepped up buying gold ever since the invasion of Ukraine. Central Banks move slowly, but are unlikely to revert course once they're going. China could be in the early stages of recovery from an economic downturn.