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I rate Matador Resources (MTDR) a hold at current levels, citing its recent rally and limited near-term upside after strong Q1 performance. Lower oil prices had an impact. MTDR's Delaware Basin acreage and robust growth make it a potential M&A target, with additional upside possible from monetizing its San Mateo midstream asset. Operational efficiency gains, disciplined capital spending, and a strong share buyback program support the investment case, but current valuation appears full. I recommend monitoring for a pullback to the mid-$40s before considering entry, as the stock may consolidate or retrace after recent gains.
Matador's production exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, up 1% above the midpoint of its guidance. This resulted in a slight increase to its full-year production guidance, with no change to its capex budget. Matador's cash operating expenses decreased by 13% per BOE from Q1 2025 to Q2 2025.
Although the revenue and EPS for Matador (MTDR) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.