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Not only are rising interest rates blowing headwinds towards homebuilders, they're facing rising costs. However, it's not all doom and gloom, as rate cuts could change the landscape in favor of homebuilders.
The Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares ETF seeks to deliver 300% (3x) of the return of U.S. stocks exposed to the home construction sector. NAIL holdings trade at only 11.7x trailing earnings, with analysts projecting low-double-digit gains for the ETF's largest positions. The February 2025 jobs report points to a weakening U.S. economy, with real-time GDP trackers moving lower as well.
Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.
Tariffs and a pause on rate cuts isn't doing any favors for homebuilder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) repeated the falling sentiment in the sector.
The sheer number of ETFs, especially within the same style, complicates investor choices due to vastly different portfolios and risk profiles. Manually analyzing each ETF is impractical; investors risk insufficient analysis and missed opportunities due to the extensive number of holdings. EA Series Euclidean Fundamental Value ETF ranks as the top overall style ETF, while iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth ranks last among the best.
Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.
CNBC's Diana Olick reports on how tariffs could be impacting the housing market.
Top Performing Levered/Inverse ETFs Last Week These were last week's top performing leveraged and inverse ETFs. Note that because of leverage, these kinds of funds can move quickly.
We highlight a bunch of the best-performing leveraged equity ETFs at the start of 2025.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, active listings for single-family homes fell conspicuously due to public health concerns and mandated stay-in-place orders. Naturally, this framework sparked a demand bottleneck, cynically benefiting homebuilders as society gradually normalized.