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Japanese equities have underperformed globally since 2011. The MSCI Japan Small-Cap Index only outperformed the MSCI World Small Cap Index in four years since 2011. Japan's economy has faced significant pressure since 2019-2020, causing many investors to avoid Japanese stocks. Despite recent underperformance, factors exist that could renew investor interest in Japan's stock market.
As the global private equity industry took tentative steps toward recovery in 2024, Japan raced ahead. The value of private equity investment in Japan jumped nearly 41% over the prior-year total in 2024, far outpacing the 25% year-over-year gain in global private equity deal value, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
While news out of China might be complicating things for Asian-focused investors this week, prospects seem to be improving for strategies that target Japan.
Japan And Australia Enter Third Economic Downturns As Omicron Wave Hits
Upcoming rate hikes could drive an increase in hedging costs for Japanese investors, redirecting flows into unconventional assets and regions. Hedged yield pickup is naturally governed by the relationship of the spot and forward FX rates, which in turn are driven primarily by short-term interest rates.