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Heightened volatility raises the appeal for cash-like ETFs. These have attracted more than $16 billion this year.
Uncertainty is the market's current buzz word. Concerns about policy, recession risk, inflation, consumer confidence, economic growth, and geopolitics have stock prices on a rollercoaster ride this year.
The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) offers an attractive 4.21% SEC yield with minimal risk, outperforming the 10-year Treasury in recent returns. Inflation trends and bond market volatility are crucial; high inflation could push long-term yields higher, while controlled inflation may lower short-term rates. Geopolitical risks, particularly U.S.-China tensions and potential tariff escalations, add layers of economic uncertainty, impacting global supply chains and inflation.
U.S. fixed income ETFs garnered strong flows in February, uncovering insights into investor behavior and risk appetite in 2025. The $1.6 trillion U.S. fixed income ETF segment took in $31 billion in net flows in February, bringing year-to-date flows to $59 billion as of the end of the month.
After a record year for fixed income ETFs in 2024, demand has been even stronger to start 2025. U.S. listed fixed income ETFs pulled in $78 billion in the first two months.
I emphasize the importance of nonpartisan economic and investment analysis, highlighting how political biases can distort market expectations and investment decisions. Medicaid cuts would likely have little impact on skilled nursing facility REITs, and the current selloff presents a buying opportunity for CareTrust REIT. Single-family rental REITs face challenges from high home prices and mortgage rates, but offer quality rental homes and professional management.
ETFs pulled in $29.5 billion in capital last week, with U.S. equity leading the way.
SGOV and SHV can appear interchangeable for many investors as cash replacement - for good reasons. However, a closer examination leads me to prefer SGOV for this purpose. For the purpose of parking cash, I ideally want an ETF with no fees, zero price volatility, and maximum yield.
Investors have upped their interest in actively managed bond ETFs, pouring record capital into them in January as some paid up in hopes of stronger returns.
My previous short term SGOV trade recommendation was a poor choice in hindsight. The S&P rally began shortly after that call. US equities remain massively overvalued, with the Buffett Indicator showing stocks priced more than double the size of the economy and a historically low dividend yield. The emergence of DeepSeek-R1 challenges the AI capex growth narrative, potentially impacting high-cost LLM monetization models from US businesses like OpenAI.