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Morgan Stanley's bearish outlook on the S&P 500 has raised concerns among investors.
The ProShares Short S&P500 ETF is an inverse fund that allows investors to short the market without using a margin; however, the current bull market may not be the best time to invest in it. Despite negative headlines and market volatility, the S&P 500 is up 20% from its low in Q4 2022, and retail outflows have been steady, suggesting a contrarian approach to investing. SH is a simple and cost-effective way for retail investors to bet against stocks, with an expense ratio under 1% and minimal concentration risk in its swap positions.
We recommend investors stay out of SH because of the high levels of bearish sentiment shown by our Master Sentiment Indicator, as well as bearish activity in SH itself. Buying levels in SH are still historically high, marking continued levels of unacceptable bearish sentiment.
Investors for now seem to be content with the data. Inflation has slowed for the sixth straight month, after peaking in June 2022 at 9.1%, and is now the lowest it has been since October 2021.
Buying levels in SH (the inverse S&P500 ETF) have remained high since this bear market began. This is not usually a good sign for the market. But the market has been grinding lower and this fund is up 17.4%.
Many ETFs exist to play defense against a stock market decline, or to try and make money when the bear is in charge. This one has an extensive history and is battle-tested in bear markets.
Shorting equity markets generally has historically been a high-risk proposition, but the risk of significant and protracted downturns is currently very high. Four ETFs, SH, TAIL, DWSH, and BTAL are examined according to three criteria -- performance, risk, and exposure to specific market scenarios.
High purchase levels in SH, plus massive growth in the number of shares outstanding, both point to lower prices for SH - the ProShares ETF short the S&P 500. This conclusion is supported by other investor sentiment indicators that also point to higher prices for the S&P 500 and lower prices for SH.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 640 points on Monday, marking its worst day since June.
Stocks and index ETFs are attempting to pull out of the downdraft that has engulfed much of June, as consumer confidence has fallen off due to climbing inflation and energy prices. Meanwhile, inverse ETFs have seen stellar gains.