SPY Stock Recent News

The S&P 500 tracker fund SPY has seen a healthy rise in 2024 so far, after already seeing a double-digit increase in 2023 and even has a slight lead over QQQ. Sustained above trend growth in the US economy, softening inflation rates and the start of the rate cut cycle go in its favour. From a top-down perspective, all its biggest ten holdings have performed well this year, led by NVIDIA along with Meta, Broadcom and Eli Lilly.

Peak optimism in stock markets often signals an impending decline, as seen with U.S. households' equity allocation hitting a record 34.7%. Professional and retail investors' extreme enthusiasm, with low cash reserves and high options activity, indicates a potential market downturn.

The policies put forth between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump contain significant differences. Trying to digest opposing political agendas and their potential impacts on the economy is often an exercise in false precision.

The S&P 500 index and its associated exchange-traded funds (ETF) like the SPY, VOO, and IVV, surged to a record high on Thursday as investors cheered the Federal Reserve boost. The blue-chip index soared to a high of $5,722, a 20% increase from where it started the year.

SPY: Equity And Bond Markets Flash Conflicting Signals On Recession Risk

The stock market normally doesn't do well in September -- at least, historically. If stock prices fall, however, that could make this an opportune time to start buying.

After two negative expectation breakers in a month, it was nice to see the market break expectations the other way.

For a brief moment, volatility picked up in early August and again in early September. We saw some appetite reappear for low volatility ETFs, which have gotten no love in 2024.

After digesting August's CPI data, I recommend caution as inflation may not be as controlled as the market assumes. Thus, I downgrade SPY to HOLD from my BUY rating issued back in July. SPY's Shiller CAPE is very high and the Excess CAPE Yield very thin.

The reading of August CPI data led the market to sell off because it was as expected. As much hope as there was for aggressive interest rate cuts this year, the FOMC would unlikely follow through on them because underlying economic data remains solid, and deep in the market's heart, it knows it to be true.