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Toll Brothers, Inc. remains well-positioned for market volatility with stable top-line performance, excellent liquidity, and significant upside potential despite current housing market challenges. TOL's strategic pricing and operational efficiency help it balance its demand, inventories, and sales, maintaining stable margins and reducing cost sensitivity amid market volatility. The luxury property market's resilience, driven by high-net-worth individuals and macroeconomic improvements, supports TOL's robust outlook and potential for expansion in FY25.
I am downgrading Toll Brothers from buy to hold due to a worsening macro environment, including rising inflation and persistent high mortgage rates. TOL's 1Q25 earnings were mixed, with strong order growth but lower-than-expected EPS and uneven regional demand, reflecting mortgage rate impacts. TOL's focus on the luxury market helps, but high mortgage rates and management's decision to moderate housing starts raising concerns about future demand.
New luxury home community features 15 expansive home sites in highly desirable Sienna master-plan in Missouri City, Texas New luxury home community features 15 expansive home sites in highly desirable Sienna master-plan in Missouri City, Texas
GILBERT, Ariz., Feb. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, today announced the opening of its newest community in Gilbert, Arizona. Stonegate Court, a new boutique gated community, showcases 22 spacious home sites surrounding a beautiful central park with a multi-sport pickleball and basketball court and outdoor gathering spaces. Construction of the Markham Farmhouse model home is underway at 4229 South Quinn Avenue in Gilbert, and the community is currently open by appointment.
VENICE, Fla., Feb. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, today announced its newest Sarasota-area community, Oakbend Wellen Park, is coming soon to the Wellen Park master plan in Venice, Florida. This gated neighborhood will include a collection of spacious one- and two-story Toll Brothers home designs and an array of luxury amenities. Site work is underway, and the community is anticipated to open for sale in summer 2025.
Toll Brothers shares dropped 6% due to disappointing earnings and increased pressure from higher interest rates, despite being up from last year. Q1 results missed expectations with a 5% revenue decline, lower gross margins, and an impairment, raising concerns about future performance and guidance credibility. The company's $6.9 billion backlog provides short-term stability, but long-term risks include potential margin erosion and price cuts due to weaker demand and its spec home inventory.
High construction costs, rising mortgage rates, and looming tariffs are pressuring the stocks.
The fact that mortgage rates remain high is certainly taking a toll on signing activity in the housing market.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 19, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Yearley - Chief Executive Officer Marty Connor - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Stephen Kim - Evercore ISI John Lovallo - UBS Trevor Allinson - Wolfe Research Mike Dahl - RBC Capital Markets Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates Rafe Jadrosich - Bank of America Alex Barron - Housing Research Center Operator Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.
Investors are reacting strongly to earnings reports from Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) and Bumble Inc (NASDAQ:BMBL), sending both stocks sharply lower in early trading.