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The Market Is Too Risky For TQQQ Speculation.
Leveraged tech ETFs gained handsomely after hours on Apr 25 due to upbeat releases from Alphabet and Microsoft.
If the Big Tech 2.0 boom is over, ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF will be a future loser for investors, mimicking 2022's dismal performance. Overly bullish investors hoping for a quick return to the bubble years of 2020-21 in 2023 may be sorely disappointed.
March was a month of sharp bond and stock volatility triggered by the bank crisis. Yet, the major indices ended the month in green.
It is my belief we're going a lot higher in 2023. While we have short-term issues to work through, this bull market is already well underway.
TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that has been on my watchlist, but I don't think the valuations for most of the largest stocks in the index are attractive today. I talk a bit about inflation and how I think commodities, energy, and real assets will outperform the tech sector.
History strongly suggests that the record number of shares outstanding of TQQQ are positive long term for both it and the market. History also shows that investor actions in TQQQ are usually correct in that most buy "low" and sell "high.
Returns for ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF have been ugly since the start of 2022, showing the double-edged sword that a leveraged ETF can be. I find the valuations of many of the largest components of the ETF unattractive even after many of the stocks took a large hit in 2022.
TQQQ offers leveraged exposure to the Nasdaq-100. I think we're getting a big bull move in 2023.
Our previous TQQQ put idea was unsuccessful, but demonstrated the importance of margin of safety. A put option idea on TQQQ to generate up to 18.6% in premium yield as long as NASDAQ doesn't decline by more than -10% over the next year.