USHY Stock Recent News

During the first week of March, fixed income ETFs gathered more money than equity products. While not rare, this is a sign of uncertainty in the markets.

My initial pessimism on USHY was too severe; deeper analysis shows a less wicked outlook for 2025 despite low spread levels. USHY holds exposure to BB and B-rated bonds, which in 2025 experienced a default rate below the historical average. Rising net leverage in IG bonds may increase fallen angels, suggesting the market is pricing in this risk rather than mispricing HY risk.

In mid-February 2025, some in the media will be excitedly discussing what stocks were bought or sold by hedge funds in Q4 2024. However, thanks to the Unlimited Hedge Fund Barometer, we can understand today that long/short equity managers were avoiding more cheaply valued small- and midcap stocks in favor of growth stocks.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is the largest high-yield corporate bond ETF in the market. It yields 6.6% and has performed reasonably well since inception. USHY is a solid income ETF and one without significant advantages or disadvantages to high-yield peers.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is the largest “junk bond” ETF, based on assets under management. The USHY ETF has an attractive yield, but its price has suffered a 12% decay since 2017 and distributions have not kept pace with inflation. USHY has a very cheap fee and outperformed most competitors, but it lags “fallen angels” funds.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has performed well with 3-year rates falling in the last 6 months and declining credit spreads. However, we strongly agree with lower credit spreads, particularly as the soft landing narrative becomes questioned. An inverted yield curve might already be accounting for associated rate declines on possibly worsening economic conditions with upcoming maturity walls.

The largest high yield bond ETFs have been out of favor for much of 2024. However, many advisors recently told VettaFi they think the style will perform best going forward.

The ETF USHY is a preferred investment solution compared to its competitors, as high-yield bonds have historically maintained their value. The current yields of the ETF present a low-risk premium, despite the default risk of junk bonds remaining essentially stable (expected to be 4.74% for December 2024). However, the ETF has always demonstrated a great ability to preserve capital.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has a broad diversification and decent performance compared to peers, but mid-term outlook is not appealing. Current credit spreads suggest high-yield bonds are priced optimistically, despite worsening economic data. Investors should proceed with caution and be aware of risks when investing in USHY and similar high-yield bond ETFs.

Credit spreads are abnormally tight, indicating a potential risk of a credit event in the bond market. The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF may not be the best choice for investors due to the potential credit event. USHY offers a higher yield compared to other high yield bond ETFs, but carries significant risks. Investors should carefully consider these risks before investing.