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Despite a huge energy shock in the economy, production has held up well. There are no miracles here, though.
The VGK fund has returned 4.32% per annum since its inception in 2005, slightly outperforming its benchmark by 0.21%. The fund is heavily weighted towards the United Kingdom, which constitutes 25.5% of the portfolio exposures.
VGK trades at too high of a multiple given its exposures which are not that well positioned in relation to weakening European economic power. Finance exposures have some push from slowly rising rates in Europe, and healthcare is resilient, but the rest have a lot of wallet share in a weakening Europe.
Europe's economic metrics held up decently in the first half of this year, giving rise to some optimism in regards to the economic fallout from its economic divorce with Russia. Deutsche Bank recently released an estimate for EU 2023 GDP growth of -2.2%. I believe that it will be worse than that, meaning that the outlook for VGK fund is bleak.
The market seems to have priced in a lot of the negativity around geopolitical risks following the Ukrainian conflict, high commodity prices, a falling euro, and recession fears. However, to be more precise, Europe consists of many countries which have been impacted differently by the above woes.
European markets rallied on Tuesday to a more than five-week high, with Germany country-specific exchange traded funds leading the charge, as Russia restarted gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, assuaging market fears of a potential energy crisis that would send the region into a recession.
Germany's first monthly trade deficit since 1991 signals a worsening of the situation in the EU economic core, even as the indebted South of the EU remains on ECB life support. The roots of the worsening economic situation in the EU have to do with decades of failed green industrial policies, a flawed monetary union, and now the Ukraine war.
Europe faces external threats, demographic issues, and a tough business environment. Despite the challenges, Europe's long period of stagnation is likely over.