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Vistra's 33.6% six-month surge outpaces utilities, fueled by clean power growth, nuclear edge, and shareholder returns.
Shares of Vistra (VST -1.38%), the diversified electric utility that uses everything from coal to solar to nuclear to supply power to its customers, plunged 5% in early trading Wednesday before turning around and recovering much of its loss.
Vistra's strong Q2 results, guidance on growth prospects, and AI-driven demand boom supported recent share price. Record PJM auction price and expansion of natural gas fleet enhance near-term earnings visibility. Quarterly results were highlighted by +12% in EPS, +10.5% in revenue, and adjusted 2025 EBITDA guidance of $5.5-6.1bn (-2.5% to +8% YOY). I would throw cold water on optimistic sentiment, as policy uncertainty beyond 2027 and Vistra's low renewable share could limit ability to secure PPAs tied to carbon neutral.
Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) stock is up 0.6% to trade at $198.53 at last check, not too far off from its Aug. 5 all-time high of $216.85.
IRVING, Texas , Aug. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra (NYSE: VST) today announced the dual listing of its common stock, effective Aug. 19, on NYSE Texas, the newly launched fully electronic equities exchange headquartered in Dallas. "We are pleased to join NYSE Texas as a Founding Member.
Vistra is a quality growth and profitability play, not a deep-value bargain, with strong fundamentals and sector-leading efficiency supporting its fair valuation. Options and market positioning are bullish, with positive gamma, call-heavy open interest, and dark pool accumulation signaling stability and upward bias. Key risks include regulatory changes, clean energy transition challenges, operational incidents, and increased leverage, but these are manageable if execution remains strong.
Vistra's growth strategy is robust, with major acquisitions and nuclear license extensions supporting strong EBITDA targets through 2026. The stock price already reflects high expectations, trading at a premium multiple well above utility sector norms, leaving little margin for error. Operational risks, high debt, and integration challenges could quickly impact valuation if any setbacks occur, given the current lofty share price.
I rate Vistra Corp (VST) a Buy due to AI-driven power demand, robust fundamentals, and significant growth opportunities in the evolving energy landscape. VST benefits directly from surging data center and semiconductor fab electricity needs, as hyperscalers ramp up capital investment for AI and cloud projects. Strong partnerships and dispatchable generation assets, including nuclear, position VST as a reliable power supplier for tech companies seeking long-term contracts.
VST's large-scale battery projects boost grid reliability, drive renewable integration and ensure increasing usage of renewables in power generation.
The world is having a “nuclear renaissance,” according to Morgan Stanley, and the opportunity for investors is ample.