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Market volatility roared back in recent weeks as soaring yields took a toll on everything from stocks, real estate to the bond market.
The VIX has remained low, with few instances of significant volatility spikes in 2023. I have a hold rating on the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETF due to offsetting factors. VXX has risks associated with its construction amid the current VIX futures forward curve shape, while seasonality is bullish for volatility.
Wall Street took a beating in the Aug 15 trading session as a result of fresh concerns over the banking sector and a weakening Chinese economy.
Volatility, as measured by the CBOE VIX, surged more than 7% on Thursday, amid stocks, index futures, and stock ETFs retracing some of their recent gains due to strong jobs data. It sent interest rates rocketing.
The iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN is an inefficient hedge against market volatility due to concerns involving tracking error, negative roll yield, and timing difficulties. Multi-year performance of VXX has been abysmal, resulting in two 1:4 reverse splits since April 2021. A position in VXX is unlikely to be of much value despite the presence of many potential drivers of volatility, including the conflicts involving Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan.
As U.S. debt ceiling talks hit a standstill, volatility ETFs may present valuable short-term investment opportunities.
A new bull market requires a dovish Fed and positive growth prospects contrary to the hawkish Fed and negative growth prospects we've now. It's difficult/impossible for the S&P 500 to overcome the 4200 level when only a few horses are pulling the 500-issue wagon.
The most reliable recession indicator shows that a notable economic downturn is likely to begin sometime in early-2024. The S&P 500 is likely to have reached the 5000 mark by then.
Tried to buy a house lately? You wouldn't be the only one – despite buyers waving goodbye to 3% and even 4% mortgage rates that were available over the last three years or so, pending home sales have surged.
If volatility wasn't the big theme of the last week already, here comes the ETF Issuer League to underline it. While AUM news week to week tends to focus on the biggest firms and names, this week's standout number came for Barclays Capital and its $1.8 billion AUM ETF suite.