XLI Stock Recent News

The Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is down 4% YTD, slightly outperforming the S&P 500, with GE Aerospace showing strong performance. Despite mixed sector performance and a concerning P/E ratio, I maintain a buy rating on XLI due to its long-term growth potential and diversified portfolio. Technical analysis shows XLI at key support levels, with potential bullish momentum if it rallies through $130, despite recent bearish indicators.

Last week's economic narrative was dominated by a surge in retail sales as consumers seemingly bought ahead of tariffs while a volatile stock market experienced a sharp mid-week sell-off following a Federal Reserve warning on tariff uncertainty. While March saw a significant jump in consumer spending, this pre-tariff strength is unlikely to be sustained.

With trade wars wreaking havoc on the markets, investors and advisors are scrambling to pinpoint areas to place their geographic bets across the globe. Despite the temporary breather on “reciprocal” tariff policies, many expect more uncertainty ahead and are shying away from tariff-exposed regions.

Designed to provide broad exposure to the Industrials - Broad segment of the equity market, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 12/16/1998.

Last week's economic landscape was dramatically reshaped by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariff policies on what he declared “Liberation Day.” His announcement triggered a historic sell-off in the stock market.

Last week's economic reports presented a narrative similar to what we've seen over the past few months: resilience coupled with concerns. The labor market demonstrated continued strength, but with signs of moderation.

Free trade benefits economies by allowing market participants to voluntarily exchange goods and services, leading to higher living standards and economic growth. Tariffs increase costs for consumers and businesses, reduce real consumption capacity, and can lead to job losses in industries reliant on imported inputs. The affluent drive the US economy, with the top 10% of earners accounting for 50% of total spending, making the economy vulnerable to drawdowns in asset prices.

Despite significant market events, industrial and tech stocks have had similar returns since 2020, indicating a potential long-term rotation favoring value stocks. Higher inflation and interest rates are shifting the risk/reward balance towards value stocks, making them more attractive compared to growth stocks. The AI revolution and liquidity improvements temporarily boosted growth stocks, but these tailwinds may not sustain long-term outperformance.

The industrials sector is expected to deliver strong returns in 2025, driven by double-digit earnings growth in the aerospace, defense, airlines, services, and transportation industries. XLI ETF is recommended due to its robust portfolio structure, low expense ratio, high liquidity, and targeted exposure to large-cap stocks in key industries. XLI's portfolio is anticipated to generate 12% average earnings growth over the next 3-5 years, with significant potential for dividend hikes and price appreciation.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they help them to make informed decisions about business strategies and financial markets.