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China's economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing expectations. Despite the optimistic growth forecasts, contrarian economic data cast shadows over the long-term outlook.

Chinese stocks have been serial wealth destroyers in recent years. But there is a price for everything, and at current de-rated valuations, the risk/reward skews very favorably. Keep an eye out for more policy support to extend this year's rally.

China's near-term challenges and long-term uncertainties are plentiful, but the widespread pessimism towards the Chinese economy and markets feels excessive.

The PBOC held the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate at 2.5% in March. The PBOC remains on a dovish tilt, but depreciation pressure on the RMB limits room for monetary easing in China before global central banks start to cut rates.

KBA: Poised To Benefit From A Chinese Dragon Year Turnaround

China and Hong Kong markets had a humbling 2023 with equities down more than 10%. Beijing has also begun stepping up tourism and travel promotions, granting visa-free entry to 11 countries, with Singapore and Thailand the latest to be included.

The Chinese economy is stabilising, but the only fireworks will come from the new year celebrations, which begin on February 11, as momentum remains weak. China's GDP growth for the fourth quarter rose from 4.9% year-on-year to 5.2%, bringing 2023 full-year growth to 5.2% YoY, exceeding the 5% growth target set at last year's Two Sessions.

While recent policy announcements and data surprises have generated some optimism, we maintain a cautious stance on China's economic prospects. We believe weak consumption trends, a downbeat labor market and continuing property sector headwinds should all weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.

China's government is finally moving to stimulate the economy after its sluggish post-COVID reopening.

Chinese stock prices have lost money in the 16 years since 2007 and are now back near 2005 levels. Chinese treasury bonds have rallied sharply as beaten-up capital capitulates out of riskier markets and back to the relative safety of government bonds.