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Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.
While the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks entered "correction territory" this month for the first time since 2023, U.S. REITs have meaningfully outperformed the broader equity market since mid-January. The rebound follows a truly forgettable three-year period for REITs dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in which REITs have accumulated 40 percentage-points of underperformance. REITs remain as unloved as ever: The number of publicly listed REITs declined for a fourth-straight year in 2024. As an asset class, REITs are the single-largest "underweight" among institutional investors.
A bunch of mortgage REITs were severely overvalued. Now they are less overvalued. But some others are actually bargains. Tons of charts because images are fun. Ellington Financial's higher price-to-book ratio may be due to lower volatility in the total economic return by period. Digital Realty Trust deserves to be mocked. I am reporting for duty!
Agency mortgage REITs are achieving exceptional price-to-book ratios. You want a high dividend yield? Great. But don't pay a huge premium in the share price. It's a great time for investors to capture some gains in this sector.
US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory."
In Part 3 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Losers of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Commercial Mortgage REITs were the "biggest loser" of REIT earnings season after results showed ongoing problems in the office space and a significant deterioration in multifamily bridge loan performance. Results from Hotel REITs were also disappointing given the record-levels of travel demand, as margin pressures from higher labor costs have taken a sizable bite out of bottom-line profitability.
US equity markets tumbled this week - suffering its worst week in six months - as disappointing employment reports and fast-shifting tariff policy failed to improve skittish investor sentiment. Reminiscent of Fed Chair Powell's infamous August 2022 "some pain ahead" speech, the Trump Administration warned of a "little disturbance" and a necessary "detox period" for the U.S. economy. Softer-than-expected employment data this week fueled doubts that sweeping overhauls to trade policy and fiscal spending can be accomplished without risking a recession.
Yield to maturity is crucial in baby bond analysis. Yield to call can also be relevant when call risk is more relevant. We're starting with a hypothetical for demonstrating a key point, then we'll look at two baby bonds as they are trading today. Market inefficiencies can arise from liquidity issues, creating trading opportunities between similar preferred shares or baby bonds.
In Part 2 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Winners of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Healthcare REITs were the leaders this earnings season, with results showing robust momentum in senior housing fundamentals, while tenant operator issues improved across other healthcare sub-sectors. Results from Net Lease, Casino, and Residential Mortgage REITs - several of the most rate-sensitive sectors - were also surprisingly steady despite the interest rate turbulence in late 2024.
Blackstone Secured Lending offers a 9.4% dividend yield, backed by a high-quality first-lien debt portfolio and a shareholder-friendly fee structure. Ladder Capital provides a diversified investment strategy with commercial loans, securities, and real estate, offering a well-covered 7.9% dividend yield. Both companies have strong balance sheets, prudent capital allocation, and seasoned leadership, helping to ensure steady cash flow and long-term value for income investors.