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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE:BXMT ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 30, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Tim Hayes - VP, Shareholder Relations Tim Johnson - Global Head of BREDS Katie Keenan - CEO Anthony Marone - CFO Austin Peña - EVP, Investments Conference Call Participants Rick Shane - JPMorgan Tom Catherwood - BTIG Jade Rahmani - KBW Harsh Hemnani - Green Street Don Fandetti - Wells Fargo Chris Muller - Citizens Capital Markets Doug Harter - UBS Operator Good day and welcome to Blackstone Mortgage Trust First Quarter 2025 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.65 per share a year ago.

Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Market volatility has increased, making it challenging to predict future Treasury rates and impacting the frequency of my article publications. Price-to-book ratios reveal bargains. Preferred shares offer lower risk and high yields; recent trades in DX-C and EFC-B have been profitable.

US equity markets steadied this past week while bond markets rallied as investors parsed a surprisingly solid slate of economic data and a decent start to corporate earnings season. Early week gains were pared following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs and the reluctance of the Fed to step in to support markets. The hawkish comments sparked a series of blistering critiques by President Trump, accusing the Fed Chair of "playing politics" and posting that his "termination cannot come fast enough."

Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.

While the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks entered "correction territory" this month for the first time since 2023, U.S. REITs have meaningfully outperformed the broader equity market since mid-January. The rebound follows a truly forgettable three-year period for REITs dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in which REITs have accumulated 40 percentage-points of underperformance. REITs remain as unloved as ever: The number of publicly listed REITs declined for a fourth-straight year in 2024. As an asset class, REITs are the single-largest "underweight" among institutional investors.

A bunch of mortgage REITs were severely overvalued. Now they are less overvalued. But some others are actually bargains. Tons of charts because images are fun. Ellington Financial's higher price-to-book ratio may be due to lower volatility in the total economic return by period. Digital Realty Trust deserves to be mocked. I am reporting for duty!

Agency mortgage REITs are achieving exceptional price-to-book ratios. You want a high dividend yield? Great. But don't pay a huge premium in the share price. It's a great time for investors to capture some gains in this sector.

US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory."