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High-yield, or “junk,” bonds outperformed in a turbulent April for financial assets, showing surprising resilience despite a sharp spike in volatility in benchmark borrowing rates.
Default rates for high-yield bonds are rising, reaching 4.5% in December 2023. Credit spreads for high-yield bonds are narrowing and currently below historical averages. Risk-adjusted returns for high-yield bonds are weak, treasuries look stronger in this regard.
Some of the larger, more well-known ETFs have significant drawbacks and stronger peers. These include HYG, BIL, and MORT. A quick explanation of the shortcomings of these ETFs, and some stronger alternatives, follows.
Consider hedging with 3–5 year Treasuries, or housing stocks. Option-adjusted high-yield spreads are near all-time lows. Junk bonds are almost as exposed to refinancing risk as much maligned commercial real estate debt.
In the first quarter of 2024, fixed income investors turned to investment-grade corporate bond ETFs. The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) pulled in $2.3 billion, while the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT) added $1.5 billion.
As we start a new month, quarter, and week, I want to remind you how I concluded the weekend Daily: “Narratives are not very meaningful if price says something different. We have seen narratives change on a dime as price rules.
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has delivered strong returns in 2023 despite concerns about rising corporate defaults. HYG's strong performance was driven by tightening credit spreads, which are trading near all-time lows. However, all-time low credit spreads do not reflect reality, as actual defaults continue to increase. This signals potential risks for the HYG ETF.
Treasury volatility has eased, but varying Treasury and credit returns persist, with only T-bills and junk bonds at total return all-time highs. I have a hold rating on iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, as credit spreads are historically tight and the HYG fund's YTW has come in significantly. With global defaults on the rise, HYG's fundamental risk/reward setup does not look ideal, though its technical chart is favorable.
U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Short/Intermediate Investment Grade Funds Have Yet To Report A Weekly Outflow In 2024
Investors were net sellers of fund assets for the second week in three, redeeming a net $11.6B for the LSEG Lipper fund flows week ended Wednesday (February 21). For the flows week, the Treasury yield rose at all maturities of the curve, except for the two-month yield, which experienced a one basis point decline to end the week at 5.50%.