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Consider hedging with 3–5 year Treasuries, or housing stocks. Option-adjusted high-yield spreads are near all-time lows. Junk bonds are almost as exposed to refinancing risk as much maligned commercial real estate debt.
In the first quarter of 2024, fixed income investors turned to investment-grade corporate bond ETFs. The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) pulled in $2.3 billion, while the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT) added $1.5 billion.
As we start a new month, quarter, and week, I want to remind you how I concluded the weekend Daily: “Narratives are not very meaningful if price says something different. We have seen narratives change on a dime as price rules.
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has delivered strong returns in 2023 despite concerns about rising corporate defaults. HYG's strong performance was driven by tightening credit spreads, which are trading near all-time lows. However, all-time low credit spreads do not reflect reality, as actual defaults continue to increase. This signals potential risks for the HYG ETF.
Treasury volatility has eased, but varying Treasury and credit returns persist, with only T-bills and junk bonds at total return all-time highs. I have a hold rating on iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, as credit spreads are historically tight and the HYG fund's YTW has come in significantly. With global defaults on the rise, HYG's fundamental risk/reward setup does not look ideal, though its technical chart is favorable.
U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Short/Intermediate Investment Grade Funds Have Yet To Report A Weekly Outflow In 2024
Investors were net sellers of fund assets for the second week in three, redeeming a net $11.6B for the LSEG Lipper fund flows week ended Wednesday (February 21). For the flows week, the Treasury yield rose at all maturities of the curve, except for the two-month yield, which experienced a one basis point decline to end the week at 5.50%.
Why High-Yield Bonds Could Outperform: Pick 7.5%-Yielding SPHY
U.S. Weekly Fund Flows Insight Report: Investors Withdraw Assets From Funds For The Third Week In Four
Hello! For this week's ETF Wrap, I caught up with Michael Arone, State Street's chief investment strategist, at the Exchange ETF conference in Miami. He shared his take on bonds as ETF investors look for clues as to when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.