SGOV Stock Recent News

I am downgrading SGOV from bullish to neutral due to anticipated declining yields as the Fed continues to cut rates. SGOV has been a strong cash proxy, but its yield is expected to fall below 4% by year-end, making it less attractive. I am shifting my focus to TLT, which I believe will outperform SGOV as long-term bond yields increase and the Fed lowers rates.

ETFs had a standout year in 2024, seeing over $1 trillion in flows for the first year in history. Total ETF assets under management grew to an impressive $10.4 trillion by year end thanks to strong flows and price appreciation.

I am upgrading SGOV to a "strong buy" due to its better trade-offs for cash compared to CDs, given the current rate environment. SGOV offers stability and liquidity, with a FWD yield of 5.10%, making it a preferable option over CDs amid fluctuating rates. CDs present reinvestment risks, especially if rates drop significantly; SGOV mitigates this risk with its flexibility and liquidity.

The Fed's new easing cycle is steepening the yield curve. 2s10s have dis-inverted. 3M yields could follow. The rare situation which made iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF so attractive is likely coming to an end.

The Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 bps rate cut signals aggressive monetary easing, aiming for a soft landing encouraged by benign inflation data. SGOV, the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, will see its yield decrease in line with Fed rate cuts due to its low duration. SGOV remains a robust cash-parking vehicle with low volatility and no credit risk, but its yield will decline, prompting a 'Hold' rating.

iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF remains a top choice for low-risk, liquid investments amid potential rate cuts. SGOV offers capital preservation, high liquidity, competitive yield, and tax efficiency, making it an attractive option for cash reserves. Historical data shows SGOV's yield adapts swiftly to Fed policy changes, outperforming traditional savings accounts and money market funds.

Although the Fed has held interest rates steady at the July FOMC meeting, weak economic data makes a September rate cut increasingly likely. The Fed will join global central banks as they embark on an easing cycle, potentially reducing interest income for SGOV investors. While SGOV remains a risk-free safe-haven asset, its attractiveness is diminished as its distribution yield is set to decline.

Treasury bills are attractive to value investors due to good returns and lower interest in main companies in indices. SGOV ETF offers over 5% yield, tactical stock market exposure possibility, and low volatility. Stock indices are structurally important, but caution could be used due to high valuations and potential corrections.

The significant decline in April and May services inflation and revolving consumer credit growth indicate demand-driven disinflationary patterns. The labor market appears to be facing a typical recessionary trend: a lower number of full-time workers (without second jobs) compared to the total working-age population. Job growth may be strong, but that is primarily driven by a rising need for part-time jobs to offset lower real disposable household income.

SGOV: If The Fed Cuts Rates, An Interesting Yield Play For Some Time