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The economy shows signs of weakening with rising unemployment, increasing consumer delinquencies, and a spike in business bankruptcies, indicating higher recession probabilities. Reliable indicators like the inverted yield curve, widening credit spreads, and outperforming consumer staples sector suggest a recession is likely within the next 12 months.
The end of the Wednesday session will be crucial, as the markets will learn what the tariffs will be like around the world. At this point, caution will be paramount, as we just don't know much about where we can go.
The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed almost no change in the overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone on Tuesday.
The drop in sentiment, as reflected in soft data, is not yet supported by hard data evidence. Available forecasts do not consistently point to extreme scenarios that would justify a crisis-level decline in the S&P 500.
S&P 500 rebounds as PVH, Tesla rally and traders await tariff clarity; healthcare and financials lag on economic weakness.
When Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term on January 20, 2025, the financial markets were riding a wave of optimism, which has now significantly faded, as evidenced by returns from indices such as the S&P 500.
The price chart of the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP: .INX) is not bullish. In fact, it's quite concerning right now.
JOLTs Job Openings declined to 7.568 million, missing analyst expectations.
The US indices have all seen a lot of losses in the recent past. However, Monday was a nice bounce for them, and Tuesday could end up being massive in its implications.
US Indices continued to see selling pressures in Q1 due to tariff threats, geopolitical concerns, and fear of a US recession. However, Q2 could very well see a rebound if history tells us anything.