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At the moment, investor activity in UPRO is not telling us much about what investors think about market direction. The last indication occurred at the October bottom when there was measurable cash flow into the fund.
With a few exceptions, UPRO has consistently produced an average daily return of 3X the S&P 500, both up and down. Long term, and at great risk, it has produced since 2010 an average return of 2.06X the annual return of the S&P 500 - 26.4% versus 12.6%.
It is sometimes difficult to understand what is happening in the stock market with so many factors including the Federal Reserve playing in at the same time. In this case, the divergence between the daily share prices of SPY, which tracks the broader market (or S&P 500), and Nasdaq-tracking QQQ indicates a useful trend.
Given the recent market volatility, you may find the use of leverage exciting or scary. If you feel either, you probably did it wrong. Our view is that leverage should only be used in a disciplined way, i.e., non-exciting way, for systematic alpha generation.
UPRO is a leveraged ETF that offers investors daily investment results that correspond to three times (3x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index. The ETF is down more than -54% year to date.