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Public REITs have benefited from a great rotation within equity markets since the end of June, with U.S. REITs returning 13.2% vs. S&P 500 3.7%. Clear evidence of a growth slowdown and moderating inflation has increased the market's conviction Fed rate cuts are imminent. REITs in sectors such as senior housing, single-family rental, cold warehouse storage, and wireless towers are a compelling opportunity with visible, defensive cash flows that offer attractive growth under a variety of economic outcomes.
REITs have outperformed the broader market since early July, prompting a valuation check to ensure they haven't become overvalued. Using a bottom-up methodology, REITs trade at a market cap weighted AFFO multiple of 19.87X, cheaper than the S&P's 21.0X forward P/E. REITs offer higher revenue growth and profit margins compared to the S&P, positioning them for potential outperformance.
Real Estate ETFs have been hovering around a 52-week high lately.
Over 200 U.S. REITs and homebuilders have reported second-quarter earnings results over the past six weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry. In this report, we highlight some quick incremental positives and negatives we've observed across each of the major property sectors. Next week, we'll publish our detailed "Winners & Losers" Report. Of the 96 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 57 (59%) raised their outlook, while 13 (14%) lowered - well above the historical second-quarter average "raise rate" of 40-45%.
We're at the halfway point of another consequential real estate earnings season, with 75 of the roughly 150 equity REITs and 19 of 38 mortgage REITs now having reported results. Amid an otherwise underwhelming earnings season across the broader equity market, REIT earnings results thus far have been materially better than anticipated, providing an added tailwind to rate-related optimism. Of the 65 equity REITs that have provided full-year guidance for Funds from Operations ("FFO"), 44 (68%) have raised their full-year outlook, while just 6 (8%) have lowered their outlook.
REITs are surging in value right now. Some REITs have a lot more upside potential than others. Here are three types of REITs that will soar.
Real estate stocks have taken a hefty beating this year, with REITs having the sole distinction of being the lone S&P 500 group in the red for much of 2024 and only just turning positive last week.
Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. The sector with perhaps the most to gain from Fed rate cuts, REITs enter earnings season with upside momentum after a dismal two-year stretch, including 50 percentage-points of market underperformance. Since the start of last earnings season in mid-April, the Equity REIT Index has gained 14.0%, outpacing the 12.8% gains from the S&P 500, led by small-caps and rate-sensitive REITs.
Wall Street is currently witnessing the "Great Rotation," with investors shunning hot technology stocks in favor of smaller companies and other sectors. ETFs, which were depressed this year, have started to gain momentum and hit new 52-week highs in the latest trading session.
REITs are the cheapest in over a decade. But their fundamentals have remained strong for the most part. We highlight two of our top picks to maximize profits in the recovery.