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U.S. equity markets pushed higher this past week - while short-term benchmark interest rates plunged to three-year lows - after employment data provided decisive evidence of cooling labor markets. Viewed by markets as a "Goldilocks" set of reports, the reports showed slowing - but still positive - job growth in August alongside consistent evidence of cooling wage pressures and emerging slack. A notable milestone after several years of ultra-tight labor markets, the number of job seekers surpassed the number of available job openings for the first time since April 2021.
U.S. equity markets were little-changed this past week as a tranquil end-of-summer week with status-quo inflation and economic indicators concluded with a jolting post-close tariff headline with highly uncertain implications. An appeals court ruled that the White House exceeded its authority under the Emergency Powers Act - the mechanism used for broad “reciprocal” tariffs - setting up a final Supreme Court showdown. The fresh injection of tariff uncertainty precedes a critical stretch of employment and inflation data and a mid-September Federal Reserve meeting that is increasingly likely to be highly contentious.
Neos Real Estate High Income ETF offers an income-enhanced alternative to iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF, using an options overlay to boost yield while tracking the same REIT index. IYRI's 11% yield far exceeds IYR's 2.4%, but comes with higher fees (68bps vs. 38bps) and potential NAV erosion from the options strategy. Most of IYRI's distributions are classified as Return of Capital, which can be tax-advantaged for investors, especially in taxable accounts.
I rate IYR ETF a buy due to its balanced portfolio: one-third leverages megatrends, while two-thirds provide stability and defensive exposure. The macroeconomic environment is turning favorable for REITs, with expected rate cuts and resilient consumer spending supporting a sector recovery. IYR is well-positioned to benefit from growth in data centers, 5G infrastructure, and industrial real estate, while maintaining diversification and stability.
After a strong June (+2.56%), the REIT sector recovery stalled in July (-1.17%) as REITs fell to a -6.42% year-to-date return. Micro cap REITs (-0.20%) outperformed in July while mid caps (-1.18%), small caps (-1.33%) and large caps (-1.55%) averaged slightly deeper negative returns. 60.65% of REIT securities had a negative total return in July.
A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.
U.S. equity markets rallied to fresh record-highs this week as investors cheered upbeat corporate earnings results and several major trade deals ahead of a frenetic week of potentially narrative-shifting catalysts. Months of tariff bemoaning and general pessimism have surrendered of late to some mid-summer optimism, but a barrage of obstacles loom, including a Fed that is ever-eager to play spoiler. Notching record-highs in four of the past five weeks, the S&P 500 rallied another 1.5% this week, advancing in all five trading sessions.
Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.
U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record-highs this week after a critical slate of inflation data showed that tariff-driven inflation remains muted, while rumors of a potential Powell termination swirled. Supported by data this week showing that core inflation cooled to its slowest pace in over three years, the White House reignited the heat on the head of the Fed. Rebounding from modest declines last week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, notching record highs in three of the past four weeks following a five-month drought.
U.S. equity markets closed the Independence Day week at record highs after Congress approved the GOP's sweeping tax cut and spending megabill, while employment data indicated "Goldilocks" labor market trends. The Big Beautiful Bill extends and enhances key elements of the 2017 tax cuts and boosts State and Local Tax ("SALT") deductions, while overhauling eligibility requirements for government benefits programs. The real estate and homebuilding industry scored some key "wins" in the legislation, which made permanent the 20% QBI deduction for REIT dividend income and relaxed some REIT tax rules.