IYR Stock Recent News

Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.

US equity markets declined for the fourth week in the past five after a frenetic slate of geopolitical headlines and economic data indicated a sluggish start to 2025 for global growth. The Atlanta Fed's updated growth forecast indicated a -1.5% contraction in first-quarter GDP, while PCE data showed the first monthly decline in personal spending in nearly two years. Buoyed by the interest rate retreat, real estate equities were also a notable source of strength this week as REIT earnings season wrapped up with a surprisingly solid slate of results.

After a brutal December (-6.85%), the REIT sector averaged negative total returns again in January (-1.29%). Large cap (+0.30%) and mid cap REITs (+0.09%) averaged small gains in January, whereas small caps (-0.95%) and micro caps (-7.80%) started the year in the red. Only 42.58% of REIT securities had a positive total during the first month of 2025.

Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. Following a year-end tumble that lingered into early 2025, REITs enter earnings season with a bit of upside momentum as Treasury Yields eased from the cusp of two-decade highs. Largely immune from trade/tariff and AI-related risk, REITs are coming back into favor after three years of historic underperformance, which has driven valuations to unusually "cheap" levels.

The REIT sector took a beating in December with an average total return of -6.85% but still finished in the black for full year 2024 (+3.70%). Small cap (-5.98%) and mid cap REITs (-6.62%) outperformed large caps (-7.43%) and micro caps (-8.63%) in December. Only 9.68% of REIT securities had a positive total return in December. 55.63% had a positive total return for all of 2024.

U.S. equity and bond markets posted their best week since the November election, as benchmark interest rates tumbled after inflation data showed surprisingly muted pressures in December. Closing the books on the Biden era, the Trump Administration assumes the reins next week of a U.S. economy that has seemingly "held it together" through a myriad of headwinds. The worst four years of inflation and the first decline in "real" consumer incomes since the late 1970s paradoxically coincided with a robust period of job growth and historically low unemployment.

US equity markets tumbled this week while benchmark interest rates surged to the cusp of multi-decade highs after a critical slate of employment data showed surprisingly buoyant labor market trends. Prompting a hawkish re-think of Fed policy expectations, inflation worries were further inflamed by surging energy prices amid frigid temperatures across the Central and East, while L.A. battled destructive wildfires. Real estate equities - the most rate-sensitive sector - were significant laggards this week as rate cut expectations soured, with REITs extending their year-end slide into early 2025.

U.S. equity markets sputtered in a choppy final week of 2024 as investors returned from the holidays with trepidation following the best two-year run for the S&P 500 since 1997-1998. The S&P 500 finished lower by 0.5% on the week, requiring a late-week rebound to pare steep declines following a historically ugly stretch of losses in the Christmas-to-New-Year period. Treasury yields posted a weekly decline for the first time in a month, pressured by a relatively weak slate of economic data, including soft PMI employment metrics and mortgage demand.

Public REITs have benefited from a great rotation within equity markets since the end of June, with U.S. REITs returning 13.2% vs. S&P 500 3.7%. Clear evidence of a growth slowdown and moderating inflation has increased the market's conviction Fed rate cuts are imminent. REITs in sectors such as senior housing, single-family rental, cold warehouse storage, and wireless towers are a compelling opportunity with visible, defensive cash flows that offer attractive growth under a variety of economic outcomes.