IYR Stock Recent News

The REIT sector took a beating in December with an average total return of -6.85% but still finished in the black for full year 2024 (+3.70%). Small cap (-5.98%) and mid cap REITs (-6.62%) outperformed large caps (-7.43%) and micro caps (-8.63%) in December. Only 9.68% of REIT securities had a positive total return in December. 55.63% had a positive total return for all of 2024.

U.S. equity and bond markets posted their best week since the November election, as benchmark interest rates tumbled after inflation data showed surprisingly muted pressures in December. Closing the books on the Biden era, the Trump Administration assumes the reins next week of a U.S. economy that has seemingly "held it together" through a myriad of headwinds. The worst four years of inflation and the first decline in "real" consumer incomes since the late 1970s paradoxically coincided with a robust period of job growth and historically low unemployment.

US equity markets tumbled this week while benchmark interest rates surged to the cusp of multi-decade highs after a critical slate of employment data showed surprisingly buoyant labor market trends. Prompting a hawkish re-think of Fed policy expectations, inflation worries were further inflamed by surging energy prices amid frigid temperatures across the Central and East, while L.A. battled destructive wildfires. Real estate equities - the most rate-sensitive sector - were significant laggards this week as rate cut expectations soured, with REITs extending their year-end slide into early 2025.

U.S. equity markets sputtered in a choppy final week of 2024 as investors returned from the holidays with trepidation following the best two-year run for the S&P 500 since 1997-1998. The S&P 500 finished lower by 0.5% on the week, requiring a late-week rebound to pare steep declines following a historically ugly stretch of losses in the Christmas-to-New-Year period. Treasury yields posted a weekly decline for the first time in a month, pressured by a relatively weak slate of economic data, including soft PMI employment metrics and mortgage demand.

Public REITs have benefited from a great rotation within equity markets since the end of June, with U.S. REITs returning 13.2% vs. S&P 500 3.7%. Clear evidence of a growth slowdown and moderating inflation has increased the market's conviction Fed rate cuts are imminent. REITs in sectors such as senior housing, single-family rental, cold warehouse storage, and wireless towers are a compelling opportunity with visible, defensive cash flows that offer attractive growth under a variety of economic outcomes.

REITs have outperformed the broader market since early July, prompting a valuation check to ensure they haven't become overvalued. Using a bottom-up methodology, REITs trade at a market cap weighted AFFO multiple of 19.87X, cheaper than the S&P's 21.0X forward P/E. REITs offer higher revenue growth and profit margins compared to the S&P, positioning them for potential outperformance.

Real Estate ETFs have been hovering around a 52-week high lately.

Over 200 U.S. REITs and homebuilders have reported second-quarter earnings results over the past six weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry. In this report, we highlight some quick incremental positives and negatives we've observed across each of the major property sectors. Next week, we'll publish our detailed "Winners & Losers" Report. Of the 96 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 57 (59%) raised their outlook, while 13 (14%) lowered - well above the historical second-quarter average "raise rate" of 40-45%.

We're at the halfway point of another consequential real estate earnings season, with 75 of the roughly 150 equity REITs and 19 of 38 mortgage REITs now having reported results. Amid an otherwise underwhelming earnings season across the broader equity market, REIT earnings results thus far have been materially better than anticipated, providing an added tailwind to rate-related optimism. Of the 65 equity REITs that have provided full-year guidance for Funds from Operations ("FFO"), 44 (68%) have raised their full-year outlook, while just 6 (8%) have lowered their outlook.

REITs are surging in value right now. Some REITs have a lot more upside potential than others. Here are three types of REITs that will soar.