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U.S. equity markets closed the Independence Day week at record highs after Congress approved the GOP's sweeping tax cut and spending megabill, while employment data indicated "Goldilocks" labor market trends. The Big Beautiful Bill extends and enhances key elements of the 2017 tax cuts and boosts State and Local Tax ("SALT") deductions, while overhauling eligibility requirements for government benefits programs. The real estate and homebuilding industry scored some key "wins" in the legislation, which made permanent the 20% QBI deduction for REIT dividend income and relaxed some REIT tax rules.
U.S. equity markets surged to fresh record-highs as investors cheered a confluence of positive headlines: a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, productive trade talks, and progress on tax cuts. Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. destroyed a trio of Iranian nuclear facilities in a formidable and decisive show of force, eliciting a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Traders priced in additional rate cuts as tumbling oil prices and economic data that remains devoid of meaningful inflation prompted dovish dissents from several Fed officials.
REITs saw a month of recovery in May (+2.08%), but still have a long way to go to get back into the black in 2025 with an average -7.33% return. Micro cap REITs (-0.73%) continued to struggle, while small caps (+4.28%), mid-caps (+1.83%) and large caps (+0.91%) saw gains. 62.58% of REIT securities had a positive total return in May.
U.S. equity markets posted a second-straight week of declines after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it remains in "no rush" to ease its "modestly restrictive" policy stance. Raising questions on whether the Fed can continue to claim itself "data dependent," Fed Chair Powell dismissed recent economic data while doubling-down on forecasts of "meaningful" tariff-driven inflation. Benchmark interest rates ticked lower this week as traders digested the Federal Reserve's rate decision alongside a generally downbeat slate of economic data and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Inflation data came in below expectations, supporting the case for lower Treasury yields, which is typically positive for real estate stocks and IYR. Despite recent underperformance and tepid momentum, I see IYR's current weakness as a buying opportunity given potential easing in interest rates. IYR offers portfolio diversification, a solid 2.5% yield, and trades at a reasonable valuation relative to historical averages and the S&P 500.
REITweek, the annual REIT industry conference, was held last week in New York City. Humbled by frustratingly persistent interest rate headwinds and historic underperformance, the venue halls were again quiet.
US equity markets rallied to their highest levels since February after a critical slate of employment data showed lukewarm labor market conditions in May, with only minimal tariff-related impacts. Benchmark interest rates jumped to near-four-month highs as hotter-than-expected wage growth metrics fueled doubts on the prospects for meaningful Federal Reserve easing this year. Meanwhile, investors weighed questions about the fate of the "Big Beautiful Bill" amid fierce challenges from Elon Musk, alongside signs of thawing in the tariff stalemate with China.
This post takes a closer look at the underlying mechanics that allow Realty Income and other high-quality REITs to grow their distributions over decades without compromising sustainability. While Realty Income's dividend shows the familiar stair-step pattern of monthly increases over time, what's most important is that this growth appears supported by a steadily rising AFFO base. One of the most reliable indicators of a REIT's health is its occupancy rate. This metric tells you what percentage of a REIT's total properties are currently leased and producing rental income.
The REIT sector saw another month of red in April (-6.45%) and REITs now average a -9.10% return over the first 4 months of the year. Microcap (-8.87%) and small-cap REITs (-8.69%) endured bigger average losses than mid-caps (-5.45%) and large-caps (-2.93%). 84.62% of REIT securities had a negative total return in April.
US equity markets surged this week - extending a dramatic post "Liberation Day" rebound - after the White House announced a trade truce with China, while investors cheered surprisingly cool inflation data. Quelling one of the primary recession risks, the U.S. and China reached a surprising breakthrough in agreeing to slash tariffs to pre-retaliation levels during a 90-day negotiating period. More good news on the inflation front. Despite the broad-based tariff hikes in April, the critical CPI and the PPI both showed the lowest annual increase in inflation since 2021.